Counterparty Insight Published methodology

Counterparty Insight Bank Risk Rating Methodology

Overview

The Risk Rating model produces a composite score on a 16-point scale (1 = AAA, 16 = CCC) for FDIC-insured depository institutions. It is based on the CAMELS framework used by U.S. federal banking regulators, adapted for quantitative analysis using publicly available regulatory financial data.

The model evaluates six components across 17 financial ratios, applies component-level weights, and produces a single composite rating. Each bank is scored against its asset-size peer group using frozen percentile thresholds pooled from 20 quarters of historical data (~94,000 institution-quarter records across ~4,500 institutions). This pooled calibration eliminates score instability caused by quarter-to-quarter threshold drift.


Rating Scale

Grade Rating Score Band Width
1 AAA < 1.50 1.50
2 AA+ 1.50 – 2.50 1.00
3 AA 2.50 – 3.50 1.00
4 AA- 3.50 – 4.50 1.00
5 A+ 4.50 – 5.50 1.00
6 A 5.50 – 6.50 1.00
7 A- 6.50 – 7.25 0.75
8 BBB+ 7.25 – 7.75 0.50
9 BBB 7.75 – 8.85 1.10
10 BB+ 8.85 – 9.50 0.65
11 BB 9.50 – 11.00 1.50
12 BB- 11.00 – 12.50 1.50
13 B+ 12.50 – 13.50 1.00
14 B 13.50 – 14.50 1.00
15 B- 14.50 – 15.50 1.00
16 CCC ≥ 15.50 0.50

Qualitative Adjustment Principles

Beyond the quantitative CAMELS scorecard, established rating methodologies recognize several qualitative factors that influence bank creditworthiness. While most cannot be systematically measured from public data, they inform the model's qualitative adjustments and hard floors:


CAMELS Components

The "Baseline Weight" shown in each component heading below is the analyst-set prior, the starting weight used before machine-learned refinement. After ML retraining the prior is blended 50/50 with the model's data-driven weight and a 12% minimum floor is applied. See the Composite Rating section for the current effective weights.

C -- Capital Adequacy (Baseline Weight: 15%)

Capital adequacy measures the institution's ability to absorb losses and support growth while maintaining sufficient capital buffers above regulatory minimums. The component captures both the reported regulatory capital cushion and the hidden capital erosion sitting in the held-to-maturity (HTM) securities portfolio, which is carried at amortized cost on the balance sheet and not reflected in book equity.

# Ratio Description
1 Leverage (Core Capital) Ratio Tier 1 capital divided by average total assets. The primary measure of capital strength under the prompt corrective action (PCA) framework. Well-capitalized threshold: 5%. Higher is better.
2 HTM Unrealized Loss / Tier 1 Unrealized mark-to-market loss on the held-to-maturity securities portfolio, expressed as a percentage of Tier 1 capital. HTM securities are carried at amortized cost on the balance sheet, so rate-driven losses do not appear in book equity but would materialize as realized losses if the portfolio had to be liquidated under funding stress (the SVB pattern). Contribution floor: this ratio is scored for every bank but only contributes to the Capital component average when the loss exceeds 5% of Tier 1. Below 5% the row is displayed but excluded from the average, so well-managed banks with no HTM losses are not credited with a perfect-zero score that would artificially boost Capital. The 5% threshold sits near the 92nd percentile of the universe-wide distribution, so contribution effectively begins at the BB-grade level and worsens fast above it. Lower is better.

A -- Asset Quality (Baseline Weight: 30%)

Asset quality is the most heavily weighted component because credit risk is the dominant risk for most banks. These ratios measure the quality of the loan portfolio and the adequacy of loss reserves.

# Ratio Description
3 Noncurrent Loans to Total Loans Loans 90+ days past due or on nonaccrual status, as a percentage of total loans. Directly measures the volume of problem credits. Lower is better.
4 Texas Ratio Problem assets (loans 90+ past due, nonaccrual loans, and other real estate owned) divided by loss-absorbing capacity (tangible equity plus the allowance for credit losses). Below 30% is healthy; above 60% signals trouble. Replaces NPA/Assets for a more meaningful distress signal. Lower is better.
5 Net Charge-Offs to Loans Annualized net loan losses written off during the period. Measures actual credit losses realized, as opposed to reserves or delinquencies. Lower is better.
6 Loss Allowance to Loans Allowance for credit losses as a percentage of total loans. While adequate reserves are positive, a high ratio may indicate a troubled portfolio requiring large provisions. Scored as lower-is-better because elevated allowances generally correspond to elevated risk.

M -- Management (Baseline Weight: 10%)

The regulatory CAMELS Management component is inherently qualitative (board governance, compliance, audit, strategic planning). Since these factors are not available from public data, this component uses quantitative proxy metrics that reflect management effectiveness through operational efficiency, growth discipline, revenue strategy, and reserve prudence.

# Ratio Description
7 Efficiency Ratio Non-interest expense as a percentage of net revenue (net interest income + non-interest income). Measures how much it costs the institution to generate each dollar of revenue. Lower is better.
8 Asset Growth Rate (YoY) Year-over-year percentage change in total assets, scored as deviation from a 5% optimal growth midpoint. Both extremes are penalized: rapid growth can signal aggressive risk-taking, loosened underwriting standards, or reliance on volatile funding, while sustained asset shrinkage signals franchise erosion, deposit flight, or business contraction. Moderate growth (~5%) indicates a healthy, organically expanding institution. A bank growing at 5% receives the best score; banks at -5% and +15% are penalized equally. U-shaped scoring around the 5% midpoint.
9 Revenue Diversification Non-interest income as a percentage of total revenue (net interest income + non-interest income). Higher diversification indicates less reliance on the interest rate cycle and a broader business model. Higher is better.
10 Provision Coverage Provision for credit losses divided by net charge-offs. Values above 100% indicate the institution is building reserves faster than it is realizing losses, a sign of conservative, forward-looking management. Higher is better.

E -- Earnings (Baseline Weight: 20%)

Earnings quality and sustainability determine the institution's ability to build capital organically, absorb losses, and fund growth without excessive leverage.

# Ratio Description
11 Return on Average Assets (ROAA) Net income divided by average total assets, computed on a Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) basis when sufficient cross-quarter history is available (falling back to the single-quarter annualized value otherwise). The primary profitability measure for banks; the industry benchmark is approximately 1.0%. TTM ROAA is the sole Earnings metric because it captures comprehensive bottom-line profitability after accounting for all revenue sources, expenses, credit losses, and taxes; other earnings metrics (ROE, NIM, Pre-tax ROA) are highly correlated with ROAA and introduce redundancy without adding independent information. Higher is better.

Why TTM ROAA. Reported quarterly net income is annualized and noisy: seasonal revenue patterns, one-time gains/losses, and provisioning lumpiness can move single-quarter ROAA materially even when the underlying franchise is unchanged. The TTM computation smooths across four consecutive quarters of profitability so the Earnings score reflects sustained capital generation rather than quarter-to-quarter noise. Banks lacking the cross-quarter history needed for TTM (newly chartered institutions, recent reporting-format conversions) fall back to single-quarter annualized ROAA.

L -- Liquidity (Baseline Weight: 15%)

Liquidity ratios assess whether the institution can meet its obligations under both normal and stressed conditions without incurring unacceptable losses.

# Ratio Description
12 Net Loans & Leases to Deposits Measures the proportion of deposits deployed into illiquid loans. Higher ratios indicate greater asset-liability mismatch and potential funding stress in a deposit run scenario. Lower is better.
13 Earning Assets to Total Assets The proportion of total assets that generate interest or investment income. Non-earning assets (fixed assets, intangibles, cash in vault) do not contribute to income generation. Higher is better.
14 Uninsured Deposits to Total Deposits SVB-style flight-risk indicator. Deposits above the $250K FDIC insurance cap have skin in the game and tend to run at the first sign of trouble (SVB and Signature were both ~85-90% uninsured at the quarter before failure). Uses the bank's RC-O memo disclosure when available, with a cap-based residual estimate as fallback. Lower is better.

S -- Sensitivity to Market Risk (Baseline Weight: 10%)

Sensitivity measures the institution's exposure to adverse movements in interest rates, foreign exchange, equity prices, and commodity prices. For community banks, interest rate risk and CRE concentration are the dominant concerns.

# Ratio Description
15 CRE Concentration (CRE / Capital) Income-producing commercial real estate loans (construction, non-owner-occupied non-residential, and multifamily) divided by Tier 1 Capital plus the allowance for credit losses, per FFIEC SR 07-1. Owner-occupied non-residential CRE is excluded because the borrower repays from business cash flow rather than property income. Regulatory guidance flags CRE concentrations above 300% of capital as warranting heightened risk management. Lower is better.
16 Securities to Assets Investment securities as a percentage of total assets. Large securities portfolios carry interest rate risk (unrealized losses in rising rate environments) and can indicate limited lending opportunities. Lower is better.

Scoring Algorithm

Step 1: Ratio-Level Scoring

Each ratio is scored on a 1--16 scale using 15 threshold boundary values that divide the value space into 16 buckets.

For "higher is better" ratios (e.g., ROAA, Equity/Assets), thresholds are in descending order:

Threshold[0] > Threshold[1] > ... > Threshold[14]

Score 1:  value >= Threshold[0]          (top performers)
Score 2:  Threshold[0] > value >= Threshold[1]
...
Score 15: Threshold[13] > value >= Threshold[14]
Score 16: value < Threshold[14]          (worst performers)

For "lower is better" ratios (e.g., Noncurrent Loans, Efficiency Ratio), thresholds are in ascending order:

Threshold[0] < Threshold[1] < ... < Threshold[14]

Score 1:  value < Threshold[0]           (top performers)
Score 2:  Threshold[0] <= value < Threshold[1]
...
Score 15: Threshold[13] <= value < Threshold[14]
Score 16: value >= Threshold[14]         (worst performers)

For "U-shaped" ratios (e.g., Asset Growth Rate), the raw value is first transformed to a deviation from the optimal midpoint before scoring with the standard lower-is-better logic. For Asset Growth, the optimal midpoint is 5%, so the scored value is |rawGrowth - 5|. A bank growing at exactly 5% has a deviation of 0 (best possible score), while banks at -5% and +15% both have a deviation of 10 (equally penalized). The deviation-based thresholds are computed from the same peer-group percentile distribution as other lower-is-better ratios.

If a ratio value is null, undefined, or NaN (e.g., the institution does not report that field), the ratio is excluded from the component calculation.

Step 2: Component-Level Scoring

Each CAMELS component score is the simple average of its constituent ratio scores, excluding any ratios that returned null and any ratios whose raw value is below their contribution floor:

Component Score = Sum(eligible ratio scores) / Count(eligible ratio scores)

A ratio is eligible when:
  - Its scored value is non-null, AND
  - If it defines a minimum-value floor, the raw value meets or exceeds it

The contribution floor is used selectively for ratios where a benign reading (typically zero) would mechanically pull the component average toward the best possible score for every bank, an unintended side effect of simple averaging. The floor is currently applied to HTM Unrealized Loss / Tier 1 in the Capital component (5% floor), so banks with no HTM losses score Capital purely from the Leverage Ratio, while banks with material HTM losses average the two. The ratio is still shown in the per-bank breakdown when below the floor, with an annotation that it is not counted toward the average, so the rationale is transparent in both the UI and exported credit reviews.

If all ratios in a component are null or below their floors, the component score is null and excluded from the composite.

Step 3: Composite Rating

The composite score is a weighted average of the six component scores, with weights renormalized if any component is null:

Composite = Sum(Component Score_i x Weight_i) / Sum(Weight_i)

Where the analyst-set baseline weights are:

Component Baseline Weight Large Bank Weight
C -- Capital Adequacy 15% 10%
A -- Asset Quality 30% 30%
M -- Management 10% 10%
E -- Earnings 20% 30%
L -- Liquidity 15% 15%
S -- Sensitivity 10% 10%
Total 100% 105%

Weight rationale: Asset Quality carries the highest individual weight (30%) because credit risk (the probability and severity of borrower default) is the primary driver of bank failures. Earnings (20%) is weighted next because internal capital generation is a meaningful resilience indicator, particularly for large banks (see override below). Capital (15%) and Liquidity (15%) are the loss-absorption and funding-stability pillars; Liquidity is critical during stress episodes but more frequently reflects credit / earnings concerns than an independent cause of failure, which justifies parity with Capital rather than over-weighting. Sensitivity (10%) captures concentrated exposure risks that standard asset quality ratios may not fully reflect. Management (10%) uses quantitative proxy metrics for governance quality.

Machine-Learned Weight Refinement (Shrinkage to Analyst Prior)

The baseline weights above are the prior; the model refines them weekly using machine learning trained on historical bank distress outcomes. The optimizer fits a logistic regression on the six CAMELS component scores to predict whether a bank will become distressed within the next four quarters, where "distressed" is defined as any of: actual failure (FDIC failed-bank list), Texas Ratio crossing 50% in a future quarter, composite score crossing 13 (B+ or worse), or a raw quarterly composite jump of ≥3 points.

Why use an analyst prior at all? Four reasons:

  1. The distress label is partially tautological with one component. The label includes "Texas Ratio crosses 50% in a future quarter," which is itself an Asset Quality signal. A pure ML fit learns "Asset Quality predicts Asset Quality deterioration" and stacks weight on A; the prior breaks that circularity so the other CAMELS dimensions retain meaningful influence.
  2. Cycle stability. The training window is only ~4 years. Whichever crisis dominated that window dominates the raw ML weights, the 2008–2014 credit-crisis era yields high Asset Quality weight; the 2021–2025 rate-shock era yields high Sensitivity and Liquidity weight. Without a prior, the framework would whipsaw every retrain depending on which kind of cycle was in the rear-view mirror. The prior anchors to a through-the-cycle view so the weights do not chase the last crisis.
  3. Statistical thinness on positives. Bank failures and distress events are rare relative to the universe of bank-quarters. A logistic regression on six features over a few thousand positive events is noisy; the prior acts as a Bayesian regularizer that pulls the estimate toward a credible default when the data is too sparse to override it confidently.
  4. Model-risk defensibility. For SR 11-7 model risk management review, "the analyst CAMELS framework is the starting point and the model refines it from data" is materially easier to defend than "the optimizer decided to put X% on one component." Reviewers expect to see structural reasoning behind weight allocations; the prior is that structural reasoning, and the ML refinement is the data overlay on top of it.

Shrinkage to the prior. An unrestricted machine-learned fit can drift heavily toward whichever components were most predictive in the recent training window, which is rarely what an experienced credit analyst would weight through-the-cycle. Earlier vintages of the model over-weighted Asset Quality for the tautology reason above; the current training window (2021–2025) concentrates raw weight in Sensitivity and Liquidity instead, reflecting the 2023 rate-shock episode (SVB, Signature, First Republic) where AOCI exposure and deposit-flight dynamics were the dominant failure mode. Either pattern risks under-weighting components whose effect on distress is genuine but indirect, or whose predictive lift collapsed temporarily during the training window. To balance what the data says against the structural framework, the final weights are a 50/50 blend of the ML output and the analyst prior:

Final Weight = 0.5 × ML weight + 0.5 × Analyst Prior weight

Both vectors sum to 1, so the blend preserves the simplex. The ML half re-ranks toward what the recent record favors while the prior half retains the through-the-cycle framework.

Minimum-weight floor. A 12% floor is then applied so every CAMELS dimension carries weight that materially affects the composite. Components below the floor are raised to 12% and the deficit is redistributed proportionally from above-floor components, keeping the total at 100%. The floor exists because ML can drive a component close to zero during cycles where its predictive lift temporarily collapses; the floor ensures the framework remains diversified and that no CAMELS dimension can be silently neglected.

Effective weights (model version 3, retrained 2026-06-21 on 16 quarters / 74,843 records / 3,266 distress events):

Component Analyst Prior Raw ML Final (after blend + floor)
C — Capital Adequacy 15% 6.5% 12.0% (floored)
A — Asset Quality 30% 20.3% 24.7%
M — Management 10% 13.5% 12.0% (floored)
E — Earnings 20% 12.8% 16.1%
L — Liquidity 15% 23.0% 18.6%
S — Sensitivity 10% 24.0% 16.7%

Two components (Capital and Management) currently sit at the 12% floor; their unfloored blend values are roughly 10.7% and 11.8% respectively. Sensitivity and Liquidity carry above-prior weight because the recent training window includes the 2023 rate-shock cohort. The trained model is versioned and stored in S3 with the full calibration parameters (shrinkage alpha, minimum-weight floor, analyst prior, raw ML weights) embedded in the saved object for auditability. The model retrains weekly so the effective weights drift as the underlying distress relationships evolve.

Large Bank Weight Override (G-SIBs and Category II--IV Banks)

For U.S. G-SIBs and Category II--IV banks (as designated in the qualitative adjustments section), the model reduces Capital Adequacy weight from 15% to 10% and increases Earnings weight from 20% to 30%. The override is applied to the post-shrinkage weights described above (the floor and shrinkage logic targets the standard weight vector; the large-bank override is layered on top for the relevant cohort).

Rationale: The largest banks operate with structurally lower capital ratios than community and regional banks. This does not indicate weakness; it reflects the regulatory environment in which they operate. G-SIBs and large regional banks are subject to enhanced prudential standards including CCAR stress testing, Total Loss-Absorbing Capacity (TLAC) requirements, resolution planning, and supplementary leverage ratio buffers that smaller banks are not. Their capital ratios are actively managed to regulatory targets that include G-SIB surcharges, stress capital buffers, and countercyclical capital buffers. Even within Peer Group 1 (>$100B), G-SIBs consistently rank in the lower percentiles for raw capital ratios, not because they are undercapitalized, but because they optimize capital deployment more aggressively given their diversified franchises, public capital market access, and implicit systemic support frameworks. Weighting these structurally lower ratios at the standard 15% disproportionately penalizes institutions whose creditworthiness is better reflected by their earnings power, franchise value, and ability to generate capital internally. The 10%/30% reweight shifts the solvency assessment toward profitability, a more meaningful predictor of resilience for institutions with reliable access to capital markets and regulatory loss-absorption requirements that go well beyond minimum capital ratios.


Threshold Calibration

Frozen Pooled Percentile Thresholds (Primary)

The primary scoring method uses frozen peer group percentile thresholds computed from 20 quarters of pooled historical data (~94,000 institution-quarter records). Each bank is scored against institutions of similar asset size, eliminating the systematic bias that occurs when applying a single set of absolute thresholds across banks of vastly different size and business model.

Why pooled (frozen) thresholds: In earlier versions, percentile thresholds were recomputed each quarter from that single quarter's population. This caused score instability in the trend view: a bank's composite score could shift across quarters even if its fundamentals were unchanged, purely because the peer distribution shifted (e.g., industry-wide NIM compression would move the NIM threshold, penalizing all banks equally). By pooling 20 quarters of data into a single threshold set, the boundaries are stable and any quarter-to-quarter score changes reflect actual changes in a bank's financial condition.

Why peer scoring is necessary: Large GSIBs (e.g., JPMorgan, Bank of America) naturally operate with lower capital ratios (~7% leverage vs ~10%+ for community banks), lower net interest margins (~2.5% vs ~3.5%), and higher efficiency costs due to their global operations and regulatory complexity. Absolute thresholds would penalize these structural differences as weaknesses, even though they are normal for the peer group.

Peer Groups

Peer Group Label Asset Range
1 >$100B Total assets >= $100 billion
2 $10B--$100B $10 billion <= assets < $100 billion
3 $3B--$10B $3 billion <= assets < $10 billion
4 $1B--$3B $1 billion <= assets < $3 billion
5 $300M--$1B $300 million <= assets < $1 billion
6 <$300M Assets < $300 million

Each bank is assigned to its peer group based on total assets from its most recent quarterly filing.

Bell-Curve Score Distribution

The percentile thresholds use a right-skewed bell-curve distribution centered at score ~6.5 (between A and A-), so the median bank in each peer group scores around A/A-:

Score Rating Width Cumulative %
1 AAA 1% 1%
2 AA+ 2% 3%
3 AA 4% 7%
4 AA- 7% 14%
5 A+ 11% 25%
6 A 14% 39%
7 A- 14% 53%
8 BBB+ 12% 65%
9 BBB 10% 75%
10 BB+ 7% 82%
11 BB 5% 87%
12 BB- 4% 91%
13 B+ 3% 94%
14 B 2.5% 96.5%
15 B- 2% 98.5%
16 CCC 1.5% 100%

The right-skewed shape reflects the empirical reality that most FDIC-insured institutions are fundamentally sound, while a smaller tail exhibits material weaknesses. This aligns the model's output distribution with external credit rating agency scales, where the median rated bank falls in the A-/BBB+ range. The asymmetry reduces reliance on large qualitative notch adjustments by allowing the quantitative scorecard itself to produce investment-grade scores for sound institutions.

For each ratio direction (lower-is-better or higher-is-better), a set of 15 percentile points is computed from the pooled peer-group distribution and used as the boundaries between adjacent grades. Score 1 corresponds to the best ~1% of the peer-group distribution; Score 16 corresponds to the worst ~1.5%. The percentile spacing is denser near the median (where most banks cluster and small ratio movements should not shift grades) and sparser in the tails (where any extreme reading is meaningful).

Minimum Data Requirement

Ratios with fewer than 10 valid data points in a peer group are excluded from the percentile computation for that group. This primarily affects Peer Group 1 (>$100B), which has ~30 institutions per quarter (~600 institution-quarter records when pooled). If a ratio has insufficient data in the bank's peer group, the system falls back to all-institutions thresholds (see 3-Tier Fallback below).

Threshold Refresh Cadence

The pooled threshold set is refreshed weekly on an automated schedule. Each refresh pulls the latest 20 quarters of institution financials, enriches them with cross-quarter computations (TTM ROAA, year-over-year asset growth), pools the records into a single dataset, and computes the percentile boundaries for each of the 17 ratios across each peer group plus the all-institutions population. All previously scored quarters are then re-scored against the refreshed thresholds so historical scores remain comparable to the current quarter.

If the pre-computed threshold store is unavailable, the system falls back to single-quarter live computation (see Frozen vs. Per-Quarter Thresholds below).

Frozen vs. Per-Quarter Thresholds

Aspect Frozen (Current) Per-Quarter (Legacy Fallback)
Data pool 20 quarters (~94K records) 1 quarter (~4,500 records)
Stability Thresholds are constant across all scored quarters Thresholds shift with each quarter's population
Score changes Reflect actual financial changes only Mix of financial changes and threshold drift
Peer Group 1 sample ~600 institution-quarter records ~30 records

3-Tier Threshold Fallback

Threshold lookup for each ratio uses a cascading fallback:

  1. Peer group thresholds, the bank's asset-size peer group percentiles (primary path).
  2. All-institutions thresholds, the full FDIC population percentiles, used when the bank's peer group does not have enough data points for a given ratio (the minimum-data requirement above).
  3. Static thresholds, a last-resort calibrated set used only when the percentile-threshold service is unavailable.

The threshold source actually used for a given bank is exposed in the UI so reviewers can see which path produced the score.

Static Fallback Thresholds

The last-resort static threshold set is calibrated using two methods:

Important: Static thresholds are absolute (not peer-relative) and will systematically penalize large banks. They exist only as a degraded-mode fallback and are not used when the peer-group or all-institutions threshold service is reachable.


Data Sources

All input data is sourced from public regulatory filings made by FDIC-insured depository institutions. No customer or proprietary data is used in scoring. New data typically becomes available approximately 60 to 90 days after the end of each calendar quarter.

The model uses the 20 most recent quarters of available financial data for threshold calibration and trend scoring:


Qualitative Adjustments

After computing the raw quantitative CAMELS composite score, the model applies qualitative adjustments that shift the final score by notches. These reflect structural advantages and disadvantages that peer-group-relative scoring cannot capture.

Adjustment Notches Applies To Rationale
G-SIB Government Support -2 8 U.S. G-SIBs (JPMorgan, BofA, Citi, Wells Fargo, Goldman, Morgan Stanley, BNY, State Street) Implicit too-big-to-fail guarantee reduces default risk; G-SIBs benefit from extraordinary government support frameworks and resolution regimes. The model's right-skewed score distribution already produces ~1 notch of organic improvement for fundamentally sound institutions; the remaining -2 notch adjustment calibrates model scores to within 1 notch of external credit rating agency assessments for most G-SIBs.
Public Market Access -1 Category III-IV banks plus Northern Trust (Category II) Ability to issue preferred stock, subordinated debt, and other capital instruments in public markets provides additional loss-absorbing capacity and funding flexibility not available to smaller institutions.
Loans-to-Deposits Floor Tiered floor Institutions with Net Loans & Leases to Deposits > 115% A loans-to-deposits ratio meaningfully above 100% means the institution has deployed more into illiquid loans than it holds in deposits and is relying on wholesale or brokered funding to bridge the gap. The 115% first tier accommodates online and wholesale-funded business models (Axos, Discover, Ally, SoFi, captive finance arms) that structurally run 95-115% without being in distress. The floor escalates with severity: >115% → BB (11), >130% → BB- (12), >150% → B (14).
Texas Ratio Floor Tiered floor Institutions with Texas Ratio > 40% Texas Ratio above 40% signals material credit distress that the simple-average Asset Quality component score under-penalizes (only two of four A ratios pin at 16 even in deep stress). The floor escalates with severity: >40% → BB- (12), >60% → B (14), >100% → CCC (16).
Sustained-Loss ROAA Floor Tiered floor Institutions with TTM ROAA below −1% A bank generating sustained losses is eroding capital organically, not just earning less. Because Earnings carries only ~11% of composite weight, a max-distress E score alone cannot move the composite to the distress band. The floor escalates with severity: <−1% → B+ (13), <−3% → B- (15).

These are hard floors, not additive adjustments: each one overrides the weighted-average composite when applicable, and the highest applicable floor wins.

The final composite score is calculated as:

Adjusted Score = clamp(Raw Quantitative Score + Qualitative Adjustments, 1, 16)

Hard floors (highest applicable floor wins):
  Loans/Deposits > 115%   → floor at 11 (BB)
  Loans/Deposits > 130%   → floor at 12 (BB-)
  Loans/Deposits > 150%   → floor at 14 (B)
  Texas Ratio > 40%       → floor at 12 (BB-)
  Texas Ratio > 60%       → floor at 14 (B)
  Texas Ratio > 100%      → floor at 16 (CCC)
  TTM ROAA < -1%          → floor at 13 (B+)
  TTM ROAA < -3%          → floor at 15 (B-)

Final Score = max(Adjusted Score, applicable floor)

where the score is bounded to the [1, 16] rating scale. The hard floors are applied after all additive adjustments, ensuring that no combination of favorable adjustments (e.g., G-SIB support) can override an asset-quality, earnings, or liquidity constraint that's already in distress territory.

Floor stickiness across blending: Floors are evaluated against the current quarter's ratios, but the published composite is a 3-quarter weighted moving average (50% current, 30% prior, 20% two-quarters-ago) with a 0.25-point hysteresis band to suppress single-quarter grade flips. To preserve the "highest applicable floor wins" rule across the blending step, the floor is re-applied after blending and hysteresis run: if the bank's current-quarter floor exceeds the natural grade derived from the blended score, the final grade is set to the floor and the composite is lifted to the floor's lower-boundary value. This prevents floor signals from being diluted by prior quarters where the floor wasn't triggered (e.g., a bank whose Loans/Deposits ratio jumped from 95% to 105% this quarter immediately reflects the BB floor rather than blending back into BB+ from two prior in-band quarters). Hysteresis cannot hold a lower grade against an active floor, but it can hold a stronger grade against non-floor movements as usual.

Why these specific floors: The CAMELS composite is a weighted average across six components, and each component is itself a simple average across multiple ratios. That double-averaging dampens single-ratio extremes: a 62% Texas Ratio only pins 2 of 4 Asset Quality ratios at score 16, and even a maxed-out Earnings component (one ratio at weight ~11%) can only shift the composite by a notch or so. For most banks this is the right behavior because credit risk is multi-dimensional, but for banks already in distress on a specific dimension, the composite under-rates the credit risk a creditor would actually face. The hard floors recover the right behavior at the tail without distorting the middle of the distribution.

Qualitative Context (Display Only)

The model also displays additional qualitative context that is not incorporated into the numerical rating but provides useful interpretive context:


Model Validation

The rating is backtested against the historical record of bank failures to confirm that lower grades correspond to genuinely higher failure risk. Two questions are tested separately: does the rating rank-order failures (discrimination), and do the failure rates implied by each grade match what actually happened (calibration). A third test checks that ratings are stable quarter to quarter rather than jumping around.

Discrimination

Discrimination is measured with the Accuracy Ratio (Gini) derived from the cumulative accuracy profile: banks are ranked from worst grade to best, and the curve plots the share of eventual failures captured against the share of the population reviewed. A Gini of 0 is random ordering; 1.0 is perfect ordering. Two tests are run:

Out-of-sample (2008 crisis). The strictest test. Thresholds are calibrated using only pre-crisis quarters (2005–2007), the only information the model could have had at year-end 2007, then frozen and used to score the 2008–2010 crisis window (~89,000 institution-quarters, 405 failing banks). The model could not have seen the crisis when it was calibrated.

Full history. The same scoring run measured across the full available panel (2007–2026; ~453,000 institution-quarters, 495 in-window failures). Because these thresholds are pooled from the same history they are tested on, this is an in-sample-threshold measurement and is reported as corroboration of the out-of-sample result, not as a stricter test.

Test Lead horizon Gini (Accuracy Ratio)
Out-of-sample (2005–07 → 2008–10) 4 quarters ahead 0.888
Out-of-sample (2005–07 → 2008–10) 8 quarters ahead 0.808
Full history (2007–2026) 4 quarters ahead 0.927
Full history (2007–2026) 8 quarters ahead 0.875

The out-of-sample result is close to the full-history result, which indicates the rating had genuine crisis-predictive power from pre-crisis information alone rather than benefiting from hindsight.

Calibration

For calibration the empirical failure rate within four quarters is computed for every grade across the full history. A well-calibrated rating shows failure rates that rise monotonically as the grade falls. The pattern holds with only minor adjacent-grade inversions at the top of the scale (where failures are vanishingly rare):

Grade Population Failures (4Q) Failure rate
A and above 57,339 4 0.01%
A- 90,863 12 0.01%
BBB+ 72,872 12 0.02%
BBB 130,736 46 0.04%
BB+ 38,598 35 0.09%
BB 27,376 82 0.30%
BB- 11,394 78 0.68%
B+ 10,977 224 2.04%
B 3,693 119 3.22%
B- 6,747 727 10.78%
CCC 2,391 615 25.72%

A bank graded CCC was more than two thousand times more likely to fail within a year than a bank graded A or better.

Stability

A useful rating should change because a bank's condition changed, not because of measurement noise. Across ~439,000 consecutive-quarter observations:

This stability is a direct benefit of the frozen pooled thresholds, which remove the quarter-to-quarter threshold drift that would otherwise move grades even when a bank's fundamentals were unchanged.

Caveats


Limitations and Disclaimers

Not a credit rating. Counterparty Insight is not a credit rating agency and is not registered as a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization (NRSRO) under Section 15E of the Securities Exchange Act. The letter grades this model produces are independent, quantitative analytical assessments for informational use only. They are not "credit ratings" as defined under the Credit Rating Agency Reform Act, are not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or to extend or deny credit, and must not be used as the sole basis for any investment, lending, or counterparty decision. The letter scale is used for interpretability; it is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or derived from any rating agency.

  1. Not a regulatory rating. This model is an independent analytical tool. Actual CAMELS ratings assigned by bank examiners are confidential and incorporate qualitative factors (management interviews, compliance reviews, IT audits) that are not available from public data.

  2. Management component is proxy-based. The real CAMELS "M" component evaluates board governance, strategic planning, risk management culture, internal controls, and compliance. The proxy metrics used here (efficiency, growth discipline, diversification, reserve coverage) are correlated with management quality but are not a substitute.

  3. Lagging indicators. Financial ratios are backward-looking, reflecting the institution's condition as of the most recent quarterly report date. Rapidly deteriorating conditions may not be reflected until the next filing.

  4. Small peer groups. Peer Group 1 (>$100B) contains ~30 institutions per quarter. Pooling 20 quarters mitigates this (~600 institution-quarter records), but the group remains the smallest. Ratios with fewer than 10 valid data points fall back to all-institutions thresholds.

  5. Data availability. Some ratios may be null for certain institution types (e.g., thrifts may report different capital metrics). The model handles nulls by excluding them from the averaging, which may result in component scores based on fewer ratios.

  6. Threshold staleness. Frozen thresholds are refreshed weekly but are based on the 20 most recent quarters of available FDIC data. When macroeconomic conditions shift significantly (e.g., rapid rate hikes), the pooled thresholds will lag behind the current environment until older quarters roll off the 20-quarter window. This is by design (it prevents short-term volatility from destabilizing scores) but users should be aware that thresholds evolve gradually.

  7. Data quality and lineage. Inputs are sourced from public regulatory filings and are subject to the filers' own reporting accuracy, restatements, and framework differences (call report field availability varies by charter type and reporting framework). The pipeline applies field-mapping and reconciliation controls, but residual data-quality risk is inherent to any model built on third-party-reported financials.

  8. Not investment advice. This model is for informational and analytical purposes only. It should not be used as the sole basis for investment, lending, or counterparty decisions.